At the round table organized by Casa Asia "The new Trump administration and Asia-Pacific"Experts Pedro Rodríguez and Gracia Abad offered us an analysis based on the policies of the new Donald Trump administration and its impact on Asia-Pacific, accompanied by Emilio de Miguel, director of the center Casa Asia-Madrid.
Pedro Rodríguez, an analyst, professor of International Relations and correspondent for ABC newspaper in Washington for twenty years, stressed that during Trump's presidential campaign, China was seen as the main culprit of many of the economic and geopolitical problems that plagued the country. However, once he joined the White House, The confrontation with Beijing was not as immediate as expected. “China was the cause of many problems, but in the end, its confrontation was not as significant as anticipated,” said Rodriguez, highlighting that Aggressive rhetoric did not translate into decisive action in the first days of the presidency. Rodriguez also highlighted a surprising aspect of Trump’s relationship with China: “Trump’s insistence on inviting Xi Jinping to his inauguration and the promise to visit China in the first 100 days of his term are very striking details,” he explained. This willingness to maintain close diplomatic relations with the Chinese leader shows a clear contradiction with previous harsh statements about the Asian giant.
Regarding trade relations with China and the escalation of tariffs, Rodriguez described the measure as “an open war and a dismantling of the World Trade Organization and the rules of the game, displaying imperialist ambition as with the Greenland issue“However, once again, there are contradictions in these policies, such as the pardon granted to the Chinese company TikTok, something that would have directly affected trade relations between the United States and China. “Trump granted a pardon to TikTok, which prevented its closure or forced sale,” said Rodríguez, also mentioning the influence of figures such as Elon Musk in the administration, which added a dimension of business interests to the geopolitical approach, taking into account that the magnate's main car factory is located in Shanghai.
The reconfiguration of the global order was a crucial point addressed by Rodriguez, who suggested that we are going backwards. to a geopolitical scenario similar to the Congress of Vienna in 1815, where the great powers share zones of influence, suggesting that the great powers of the century XXI are seeking to redefine their areas of control. This dynamic is especially relevant in Asia-Pacific, where rivalry between China and the United States is intensifying. On the question of Taiwan, Rodriguez did not hesitate to point out that if Russia has managed to impose its will in Ukraine, China could try the same with regard to Taiwan in the future.It is plausible to think that China could have a similar plan regarding Taiwan.“he warned, reflecting growing international concern over China’s territorial expansion.
For her part, Gracia Abad, a doctor and professor of International Relations at the Antonio de Nebrija University, provided a more panoramic view of the evolution of international geopolitics. “China has been the most transcendental process of the international order in recent decades,” explained Abad, pointing out that the question now is whether China will be content to be just another power in the international arena or will it seek a dominant role?. This reflection underlines the impact of Chinese influence, which extends beyond Asia, reaching Africa and Latin America, regions where China has increased its presence through active diplomacy and infrastructure projects. “China has developed a wolf warrior diplomacy and has imposed sanctions on European politicians and companies, which has strained relations,” Abad said, highlighting how China’s aggressive diplomatic stance has altered the global balance of power.
As for China's relations with Europe, Abad noted that tensions have been rising. “The European Union's relations with China have gone from being strategic allies to systemic rivals,” he said, citing differences over sovereignty, human rights and Chinese penetration into strategic sectors of the European economy. The rivalry is intensifying as China seeks to expand its political influence while Europe faces the difficult task of balancing its economic relationship with Beijing with its commitment to human rights and the international order.. China's ambiguity regarding the war in Ukraine was also discussed by Abad. “China is interested in both the United States and Russia wearing themselves out in the conflict,” he explained, showing how Chinese pragmatism in this regard reflects its strategy of taking advantage of the weakening of its main rivals while maintaining an ambiguous diplomatic stance.
Finally, Rodriguez and Abad agreed to point out the impact of Trump's unilateral stance in the Indo-Pacific region. Pedro Rodriguez mentioned that the Trump's rejection of multilateralism could have significant consequences, such as a possible US withdrawal from AUKUS, a strategic agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom. “Trump does not understand multilateralism, and this could lead to the withdrawal of the United States from AUKUS, affecting cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” Rodriguez warned, which could weaken the United States' position vis-à-vis China in one of the most strategic regions in the world and could also affect key alliances in Asia, such as those between Australia and Japan.
In short, the Trump administration has brought about a significant shift in global geopolitics, with a Reconfiguring relations with powers such as China and Russia. Aggressive rhetoric toward China, which initially seemed to signal direct confrontation, has been replaced by a more pragmatic approach, in which commercial and diplomatic interests play a central role. The U.S. relationship with China in the coming years will remain complex and volatile, with crucial implications for the future of the international order.
